Oscar Winners Predictions

“Oscar Winners Predictions”

The time is here when we put our heads together to see if we can be a step ahead of the Academy and read their minds. Thankfully, there are more rewards in predictions with the news of the likelihood that the writers’ strike will be resolved very soon and that there will be a starry Oscar® ceremony after all. Of course, what the familiar patterns and trends, or “buzz” say may be different from what we really want to see win. As such, I have listed my prediction (“what will win”) as well as my preference (“what truly deserves to win”). So here go for the major categories:

Best Picture: No Country for Old Men, pure and simple. It is the best of the lot and the most unanimously praised. There was a time when There Will Be Blood was considered a serious threat but the DGA and PGA wins for the Coens' film are clear indicators that No Country for Old Men is not budging. Some feel that if those two films split among their target audiences, Juno might take the crown but it is still a little too feathery and lightweight (which is probably like Little Miss Sunshine last year). As for Michael Clayton and Atonement, the nominations are their ultimate rewards (though I think Atonement is the close second here).

Prediction: No Country for Old Men.
Preference: No Country for Old Men.

Best Director: Again, there is no dethroning the Coen brothers here. They are the only ones with a previous nomination and not even the Academy’s purported bias against duo directors will stop them from getting this one. The others like P.T. Anderson, Julian Schnabel, Tony Gilroy and Jason Reitman may go on to win an Oscar® but in a category that has so many directors who are relatively new to or normally work outside the normal Hollywood system, the Coens are the veterans and are thought to be long due.

Prediction: Joel and Ethan Coen, No Country for Old Men.
Preference: Joel and Ethan Coen, No Country for Old Men.

Best Actor: Yet another category that has very little contesting. This one is Daniel Day-Lewis’ to lose for There Will Be Blood. That film will likely potentially be a big loser on Oscar® night so Lewis’ win will be a way to reward it in some way (and he was the thread that did hold P.T. Anderson’s at times screw-loose vision together). I am happy enough that my personal pick, Tommy Lee Jones for In the Valley of Elah was awarded with a nomination for essentially carrying that film on his thespian shoulders and also for Viggo Mortensen in Eastern Promises. George Clooney is a fairly recent Oscar® winner and as many women would like to see their own heartthrob, Johnny Depp win for Sweeney Todd, there will be another time.

Prediction: Daniel Day-Lewis, There Will Be Blood.
Preference: Tommy Lee Jones, In the Valley of Elah.

Best Actress: Finally, a category with potential for some curve balls and this is where I am going on a little whim with my prediction. I know the precursors from the critics and the SAG dictate that Julie Christie will win here for Away From Her but I have a feeling that the sentimental vote will not pass here. Older veterans are usually quite rare in leading categories and the Academy also likes to give a boost for rising younger actors and actresses in the leading categories (think of Adrien Brody’s first win for The Pianist in 2002 when all the other four nominees were previous winners). Christie does not deserve it this year anyway and I can sense audiences wanting the truly deserving contender, Marion Cotillard to win for bringing the heart and soul of Edith Piaf to life in La Vie en Rose. Also, since globalization has lately been quite big in the Oscars®, I think this trend will continue with Javier Bardem likely to win for Best Supporting Actor. Ellen Page may be able to sneak in for Juno but the voters will feel she is a little too young at the age of 20. Cate Blanchett will likely get her award in the supporting category and Laura Linney will gain enough respect in future years to possibly walk up to the Oscar® podium another year.

Prediction: Marion Cotillard, La Vie en Rose.
Preference: Marion Cotillard, La Vie en Rose.

Best Supporting Actor: Javier Bardem for No Country for Old Men, no contesto. His character has even been compared to the best cinematic villains like Hannibal Lecter and the potential awards sweep of that film won’t leave him out (plus he is thought to be long due). There won’t even be room for a sentimental vote for a senior veteran like Hal Holbrook for Into the Wild (I’m trying really hard to contain my urge to make an ironic pun here) and the other nominees are non-contenders.

Prediction: Javier Bardem, No Country for Old Men.
Preference: Javier Bardem, No Country for Old Men.

Best Supporting Actress: Cate Blanchett seemed like the solid favorite here for a long time for I’m Not There until Ruby Dee nabbed a surprising win at the SAG awards for American Gangster. But the SAG awards are usually more privy to sentimental votes than the Oscars® and thus Dee’s winning for a performance in just a handful of scenes is less likely. Amy Ryan’s Gone Baby Gone, I think, is the biggest potential spoiler here, as she has swept most of the critics’ awards but Blanchett has two nods this year and the Academy loves her too much. Saoirse Ronan's nomination for Atonement is a big enough boost for her promising career and hopefully more people will see Tilda Swinton's work to recognize her in the future.

Prediction: Cate Blanchett, I’m Not There.
Preference: Cate Blanchett, I’m Not There, with a slight nudge towards Amy Ryan in Gone Baby Gone.

Best Original Screenplay: As I mentioned before, Diablo Cody from Juno has the wildest story to back up her rise to popularity and the Academy will love to seal it with their stamp of approval. In my opinion though, her screenplay was not as original as Nancy Oliver’s for Lars and the Real Girl, which had such impeccable tone control in maintaining absolute sincerity and innocence in potentially subversive subject matter. But I have rarely seen more buzz for a screenwriter and the tides likely will not turn.

Prediction: Diablo Cody, Juno.
Preference: Nancy Oliver, Lars and the Real Girl.

Best Adapted Screenplay: Again, the Coen brothers' No Country for Old Men is the juggernaut this year and the crisp distillation of Cormac McCarthy’s original prose won’t be anything but well-regarded here. The voters may feel that P.T. Anderson may deserve some kind of reward for There Will Be Blood but his screenplay is not as tight and lean as the Coens’ and the latter are the veterans here. The other nominees are also highly accomplished from Sarah Polley's screenplay for Away From Her to Christopher Hampton's for Atonement and it must have been particularly difficult for Ronald Harwood to adapt The Diving Bell and the Butterfly for the big screen. But again, this is the Coens’ year.

Prediction: Joel and Ethan Coen, No Country for Old Men.
Preference: Joel and Ethan Coen, No Country for Old Men.

Best Animated Feature: Brad Bird’s Ratatouille is likely the frontrunner here but I don’t feel as strongly as most people do that it will be the automatic winner. After all, Cars was likely overlooked in favor of the overrated Happy Feet probably because the Academy got tired of honoring Pixar one too many times. This may allow Persepolis to sneak in and nab the Oscar® here but, in the end, the fact that Ratatouille was the most unanimously acclaimed film of 2007 will carry it through (and it is my personal choice as well, as it was No. 2 on my best films list). Surf’s Up is a non-contender.

Prediction: Ratatouille.
Preference: Ratatouille.

Best Original Song: Alan Menken and Stephen Schwartz are back with three old-school Disney songs from Enchanted in this category (and it would be nice to see Amy Adams perform her songs on Oscar® night). But I think they will have to make way for “Falling Slowly” by Glen Hansard and Marketa Irlgova from Once. This is the only way for the Academy to honor that fine film and the Disney songs will probably cancel each other out. The nomination is its reward for “Raise It Up” from August Rush.

Prediction: “Falling Slowly,” Once.
Preference: “Falling Slowly,” Once, with a wink and a nudge towards “So Close” from Enchanted.

It is a relief that a wondrous year in movies will be celebrated with the star-studded event it deserves. There may be some disappointments when politics get involved with the votes but we shall see on February 24. The race is on so feel free to leave your own predictions and choices for who you would like to see win!